Friday, 13 February 2015

Oscar Predictions 2015

BEST PICTURE

The Best Picture category, more often than not, tends to be a two horse race. Last year was the throw up between special effects epic Gravity, or slave drama 12 Years a Slave. The year before, Argo and Lincoln. The support in this year’s nominations is solid, The Grand Budapest Hotel rewarding Wes Anderson’s strong contribution to cinema in the past 15 years, and Whiplash a much deserved nod for a standout of last year’s independent cinema. But the ‘two-horse race’, here, belongs to two of the more unique films of the past decade. Both tremendously ambitious in the own way, and both distinctly memorable in their own way. The stronger of the two, I believe, is Inarritu’s Birdman (or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), an immensely enjoyable effort with the hands-down best ensemble cast of the year: Inarritu’s dissection of fame in the film industry is equally hilarious and uncomfortable, an all too real inside scoop on the mechanisms of a Broadway production. The equally deserving winner, however, is most likely to be Boyhood, which you’ll, unless you’ve been under a rock the last few months, has been hoovering up just about any award it can get its hands on. Hollywood just can’t resist Linklater’s monumental feat of cinema, truly the only of its kind.

Should Win: Birdman
Will Win: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Unsurprisingly, the praise for the Best Picture generally falls quite neatly into the lap of the respective Director, who’s most likely to scoop the double. That said, the last two ceremonies have seen unexpected imbalance in this respect, last year’s ceremony honouring Alfonso Cuaron’s technical wizardry over Best Picture winner Steve McQueen’s unflinching storytelling, while 2013 forgot Ben Affleck altogether from the directing category, awarding Ang Lee for his sublime effort on Life of Pi. No such mismatch should occur here: Linklater, forever a darling of the independent cinema, has stepped up to the challenge and taken an indie experiment to blockbusting and mainsteam award success, and deserves every bit of the praise he gets. Boyhood reads not only as a fascinating mapping of the last 12 years, or as an intriguing coming-of-age story, but as a loving anecdote of Linklater’s film history, combining the best elements of his Before Sunrise trilogy amongst others. Linklater, once too cool for the Oscars, has really come into his own here.

Should Win: Richard Linklater
Will Win: Richard Linklater

BEST ACTOR

Considerably harder to predict than in recent years, the Best Actor category is not only hotly contested but extremely varied in its offerings. Once a front runner, Benedict Cumberbatch’s superb performance as Alan Turing has been somewhat forgotten, perhaps over shadowed by his English counterpart Redmayne. Bradley Cooper, despite picking up some flak for the questionable motivations of American Sniper, puts in an unrecognizable stint, the weight gain an Academy favourite and one which might ordinarily end in awards. Steve Carrell, in any other year, would have been a stand out favourite in a Supporting Actor field (which his performance certainly ought to be placed in), for one of the more chilling roles of the year. The two heavyweights, however, are separated by barely anything, and thus makes this a considerably harder category to predict. Redmayne has, up until now, received the bulk of the awards for an unforgettable performance as genius ALS sufferer Stephen Hawking, Michael Keaton, however, is a seasoned favourite, making a comeback in spectacular fashion, in a role that’s comedy and tragedy in equal measure, with Keaton not only striking the balance, but knocking it out the park. Redmayne, it seems, would just clinch it.

Should Win: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

BEST ACTRESS

Strangely, the Best Actress category this year hasn’t been talked about much, considering the hype surrounding the past few superb winners (Blanchett, Lawrence, Streep, Portman, etc.). What is notable, meanwhile, is all are very clearly the star of the film for which they are nominated, as opposed to being a successful product of the film. Reese Witherspoon, winner for Walk the Line, is outstanding in what first seemed to be remarkably similar to Into the Wild, but is in fact a considerable effort in it’s own right. Julianne Moore has been singled out as the clear favourite, her distinctly calm and collected acceptance speech at the Baftas showing victory is all too expected for her. Rosamund Pike, meanwhile, gives the stand-out performance, not only of the category but perhaps of the year: as the eponymous Gone Girl, her manipulative, mysterious, and all-over conceited performances was disturbing in every sense of the word, standing out in, in my opinion, 2014’s best film.

Should Win: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Will Win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bar Robert Duvall’s not entirely deserved nomination for The Judge, this is perhaps the strongest category of the year. Edward Norton, whose outstanding commitment to the method has made him one of the most sought after actors of decade, is on stunning form as a semi-caricature of himself – a screen-to-stage actor who takes himself just that bit too seriously – and provides some of the year’s best deadpan in his onscreen rivalry with Keaton. Mark Ruffalo’s wonderfully understated role in Foxcatcher plays perfectly off the surreal characters of Channing Tatum and Steve Carrell, but isn’t quite enough to make him the bride rather than the bridesmaid. The ever impressive Ethan Hawke, the perfect counterpart to Linklater as we’ve come to learn, in any other year a sure winner, is charming, loveable, and despicable as the rarely present father in Boyhood. None match up to J.K. Simmons, in a role tailor-made for his ability to effuse anger in every way possible, gives what might be the performance of the year: so wonderfully hateable you miss him every time he’s not on screen, his jazz afficianado in Whiplash is the aggressive PE coach or pushy music teacher we all had at some point in our lives. Simmons is truly one of the greatest character actors of our generation, and this is an Oscar hard-earned.

Should Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Will Win: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The obvious talking point of this category is, as it always has been, Meryl Streep: receiving her 19th nomination for Into the Woods is an unimaginable feat, and one which perhaps daunts the other nominees. She’ll most likely, however, have to save it for lucky number 20, since unusually she is a clear outsider in a highly commendable category. Clear favourite is Patricia Arquette, the mother to Ethan Hawke’s father in Boyhood, and a role which sees her character arc through the most fantastic yet tragic process possible: motherhood comes so naturally to Arquette that her on-screen relationship with son Coltrane is never unconvincing. An outside shout has to go to Emma Stone, meanwhile, in a performance which has perhaps redefined her career: steering worryingly close to the romcom ‘girl-next-door’, Stone has taken the wheel of her own career, to incredible effect. Her recovering drug-addict in Birdman is powerfully destructive both to herself and to those around her, a real force to be reckoned with in the midst of her overbearing father Keaton and aspiring alpha Norton.

Should Win: Emma Stone (Birdman)
Will Win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

BEST OF THE REST
Original Screenplay – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Adapted Screenplay – Whiplash
Cinematography - Birdman
Costume – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Editing - Whiplash
Documentary Feature - CitizenFour
Animated Feature – Big Hero 6
Foreign Language - Ida
Music – The Grand Budapest Hotel



Top 5: Biggest Snubs

5. The Lego Movie (Best Animated Feature/Best Picture)
Certainly the most surprisingly brilliant film of the year, displaying extraordinarily clever themes for an animated film, it’s a travesty this masterpiece didn’t make it onto the Best Animated Feature list, let alone the Best Picture category.

4. Gillian Flynn/Gone Girl (Best Adapted Screenplay)
A bestseller in novel form, Flynn provided the exhilarating screenplay for last year’s tensest plotline, magnificently transforming her own book into on-screen gold.

3. Scarlett Johansson/Under the Skin (Best Actress)
A performance that unfortunately disappeared off the radar, Johansson’s extraterrestrial portrayal redefined onscreen aliens, in seductive and chilling in equal measure.

2. Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (Best Actor)
Hands down Gyllenhaal’s finest performance, and easily more exciting and watchable than some of the more, say, formulaic nominations in this category.

1. Gone Girl/David Fincher (Best Picture/Best Director)

Fincher’s a genius, and this was the film of the year. Enough said.