Here it is then. The most clichéd moment in a film buff’s year. That
ever glorious moment for said buff to pretend he knows enough about film from
the past year, simultaneously waxing lyrical about the next best thing while
also complaining incessantly about the endless faults of the Academy. And of
course all the while massaging his own ego knowing that he has perhaps got
these predictions right. So here’s how it works: I’ve laid up who I think
should win, while also hazarding an uneasy guess at who’ll probably actually
win – because obviously the Academy will always get it wrong. And come this
Sunday, perhaps I’ll be just a little bit smugger.
Best
Picture

Should
Win: 12 Years a Slave
Will
Win: 12 Years a Slave
Best
Director
What some would call a bizarre category, on account of the
relatively frequent occurrence of the mismatch between Best Picture and
Director winners. Alexander Payne,
despite the heartwarming Nebraska, has
a snowball’s chance in hell, while it would be an understatement to say that Scorsese isn’t on best terms with the
Academy: his Oscar for The Departed, it seems, is enough to keep him satisfied
for the time being. David O.Russell
is on as good a form as any, but when is he not, with his past two features
also earning him Director and Picture nods. As with the BP category, however,
this is really a two-horse race. Steve
McQueen, making a remarkable transition from visual artist to director with
two fantastic efforts in the form of Hunger and Shame, is certainly due this
one: his commitment to 12 Years is
on ‘passion project’ proportions. Cuaron,
however, has done the undoable with making a Sci-Fi film accessible for
non-geeks and geeks alike, turning a survival drama into a space flick of epic
proportions. The four year production period, too, makes this a commendable
effort, and one he will surely win for.
Should
Win: Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)
Will
Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Best
Actor

Should
Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Will
Win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers
Club)
Best
Actress
Perhaps the DiCaprio of
the Best Actress category, Amy Adams
has had an unusually unfortunate time in her nomination fields, losing out in
the past for outstanding performances in The Fighter, Doubt, and The Master on
account of the strength of her competition. She provides the path of reality
into the complex American Hustle,
with her likable yet ruthless muse to Bale’s
conman. Early favourite Gravity too
appears to have faded in popularity, in particular the central performance of Sandra Bullock who really holds the
hyper-reality of the film together. Cate
Blanchett, however, has pulled out the role of a lifetime in the most
recent effort from Woody Allen, Blue
Jasmine: playing a New York socialite fallen from glory, Blanchett’s performance fluctuates from
understatement, to despair, to full on crazy. Her face perfectly captures the
subtleties of a wealth-induced mental illness, and she delivers the carefully
crafted dialogue with Muhammed Ali-like punch. This one belongs to her.
Should
Win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Will
Win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Best
Supporting Actor

Should
Win: Michael Fassbender (12 Years A
Slave)
Will
Win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Best
Supporting Actress
Again, an interesting category,
particularly given Anne Hathaway’s win last year for her brief, albeit
unforgettable, cameo in Les Mis. Its nice to see Sally Hawkins get a look in here: the lovable Brit has stolen
hearts back home for years now, and her successful transformation in Blue Jasmine is hugely commendable.
Personal favourite in this category is octogenarian June Squibb, who’s performances in the past have been few and far
between: her role as mouthy wife Kate in Nebraska
is nothing short of comic genius, and you find yourself missing her
whenever she’s absent from screen. Newcomer Lupita Nyongo is certainly a strong contender, standing her ground
among the big names in 12 Years a Slave,
and making for one of the most distressing roles of the year. Late-surger Jennifer Lawrence, however, is likely
to make it two in a row (both in David
O.Russell films) with her stand-out spoilt wife in American Hustle, more than holding her own against the ‘big boys’,
and at her best when singing her heart out to ‘Live and Let Die’, a scene of
pure enjoyment and belly laughing.
Should
Win: June Squibb (Nebraska)
Will
Win: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Best
of the Rest (Should Win/Will Win)
Original Screenplay: Blue Jasmine/American Hustle
Adapted Screenplay: Before Midnight/Philomena
Cinematography: Inside Llewyn Davis/ Gravity
Animated Feature: Frozen/ Frozen
Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing/ The Act of Killing
Quick
Top 5: Most Shocking Snubs of 2014
5.
Before Midnight – Best Picture
The previous two ignored all together,
perhaps expecting a ‘Lord of the Rings’ style acknowledgement for this
beautifully touching trilogy.
4.
Robert Redford (All is Lost) – Best Actor
Not many actors could hold together a
survival film on their own, let alone a 77 year old: Redford’s face says it all
in this near dialogue-less film.
3.
Daniel Bruhl (Rush) – Best Actor/Supporting Actor
Disappeared after Inglorious Basterds,
Bruhl has come back on full form in this racing epic, as lovable baddie Niki
Lauda opposite Chris Hemsworth.
2.
Inside Llewyn Davis/The Coen Brothers – Best Picture/Director/Screenplay
The Coens’ 16th film is top form
as always, and has been shunned altogether, save for a lousy cinematography
nomination.
1. Joaquin
Phoenix (Her) – Best Actor
One of our generation’s finest actors,
Phoenix is at the top of his game in Her:
nominated for Best Picture, despite barely being able to exist without the
central performance of J.P.