And the Winner Is...

Here it is then. The most clichéd moment in a film buff’s year. That ever glorious moment for said buff to pretend he knows enough about film from the past year, simultaneously waxing lyrical about the next best thing while also complaining incessantly about the endless faults of the Academy. And of course all the while massaging his own ego knowing that he has perhaps got these predictions right. So here’s how it works: I’ve laid up who I think should win, while also hazarding an uneasy guess at who’ll probably actually win – because obviously the Academy will always get it wrong. And come this Sunday, perhaps I’ll be just a little bit smugger.

Best Picture

The main category this year is something of a plethora of delights. We’ve got sci-fi romance (Her), crime comedy (American Hustle), space thriller (Gravity), historical tear-jerker (12 Years a Slave), and even black and white road trip (Nebraska), but to name a few. The early favourite emerged as Gravity back in October, when the thrilling two minute trailer grabbed our attention by the throat, along with a welcome appearance from all-round good guy George Clooney. But the prize this year belongs in one place and one place only: to say 12 Years a Slave is enjoyable would be inaccurate, in fact it is quite the opposite. Two hours of some of the hardest hitting drama since Schindler’s List already marks this out as a modern classic, and is certainly the movie event of the year, if not the decade. The nuanced camera work and the bold score makes this film a clear winner, and certainly a clear favourite for awards night. Who cares if Gravity was in 3D?

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Best Director

What some would call a bizarre category, on account of the relatively frequent occurrence of the mismatch between Best Picture and Director winners. Alexander Payne, despite the heartwarming Nebraska, has a snowball’s chance in hell, while it would be an understatement to say that Scorsese isn’t on best terms with the Academy: his Oscar for The Departed, it seems, is enough to keep him satisfied for the time being. David O.Russell is on as good a form as any, but when is he not, with his past two features also earning him Director and Picture nods. As with the BP category, however, this is really a two-horse race. Steve McQueen, making a remarkable transition from visual artist to director with two fantastic efforts in the form of Hunger and Shame, is certainly due this one: his commitment to 12 Years is on ‘passion project’ proportions. Cuaron, however, has done the undoable with making a Sci-Fi film accessible for non-geeks and geeks alike, turning a survival drama into a space flick of epic proportions. The four year production period, too, makes this a commendable effort, and one he will surely win for.

Should Win: Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Best Actor

An immensely close one to call here. Poor old Leo has found himself again in a particularly tricky field of competitors: after being snubbed for The Aviator, Blood Diamond, Shutter Island, Django Unchained, etc, this is an award long long overdue. His portrayal of capitalism personified in Jordan Belfort is nothing short of a dramatic and comedic delight in equal measure. But my vote, based on the performance at hand, goes to Ejiofor: a long time support player, now promoted to the big time in McQueen’s slave drama. His performance is one of genuine tragedy (in the traditional sense), at its saddest when singing ‘Roll Jordan Roll’ at the funeral of another slave, and at its highest when being reunited with his family after the eponymous ’12 Years’ absence. The Academy, unfortunately, love the underdog, and Matthew McConaughey is the great dane of underdogs: his metamorphosis from rom-com pretty boy to ac-tor is phenomenal, and he has certainly been rewarded here for scene-stealing support roles in Killer Joe and The Wolf of Wall Street. McConaughey’s performance as AIDS victim Ron Woodruff ticks all the Academy boxes – triumph over adversity, fighting the Man, etc. Don’t get me wrong, McConaughey one hundred percent deserves this, but it would have been nice for Ejiofor to get a look in.

Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress

Perhaps the DiCaprio of the Best Actress category, Amy Adams has had an unusually unfortunate time in her nomination fields, losing out in the past for outstanding performances in The Fighter, Doubt, and The Master on account of the strength of her competition. She provides the path of reality into the complex American Hustle, with her likable yet ruthless muse to Bale’s conman. Early favourite Gravity too appears to have faded in popularity, in particular the central performance of Sandra Bullock who really holds the hyper-reality of the film together. Cate Blanchett, however, has pulled out the role of a lifetime in the most recent effort from Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine: playing a New York socialite fallen from glory, Blanchett’s performance fluctuates from understatement, to despair, to full on crazy. Her face perfectly captures the subtleties of a wealth-induced mental illness, and she delivers the carefully crafted dialogue with Muhammed Ali-like punch. This one belongs to her.

Should Win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Will Win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Best Supporting Actor

The ‘supporting’ categories are always an interesting category: often pitting near-leading parts against brief cameos, it is often to state what exactly a ‘supporting role’ is. Funny man Jonah Hill here stars as Mr “Thanks for the Nomination but Not a Chance’ for his eccentric performance in The Wolf of Wall Street, while Captain Phillips star Barkhad Abdi plays ‘Never before seen newcomer’: the latter, we should completely discredit, following his perhaps surprising win in the BAFTAs last week. Bradley Cooper, in any other year, would be a strong favourite: his over-the-top appearance in American Hustle was more than impressive for a man who also starred in The Hangover Part III, standing out among an impressive cast. This year, its all about Michael Fassbender: mindblowing roles in Hunger and Shame (his previous collaborations with McQueen), and an absolute scene-stealer in the otherwise yawn-worthy Prometheus. His portrayal of Edwin Epps is one hundred percent evil, yet consistently watchable. Unfortunately, fears that Fassbender may be the new DiCaprio (with regards to Oscar-chasing), are backed by the unstoppable force of Jared Leto, the 30 Seconds to Mars front man, who donned a wig and dress and gave one of this year’s most likable performances in Dallas Buyers Club.  

Should Win: Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)

Will Win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Supporting Actress

Again, an interesting category, particularly given Anne Hathaway’s win last year for her brief, albeit unforgettable, cameo in Les Mis. Its nice to see Sally Hawkins get a look in here: the lovable Brit has stolen hearts back home for years now, and her successful transformation in Blue Jasmine is hugely commendable. Personal favourite in this category is octogenarian June Squibb, who’s performances in the past have been few and far between: her role as mouthy wife Kate in Nebraska is nothing short of comic genius, and you find yourself missing her whenever she’s absent from screen. Newcomer Lupita Nyongo is certainly a strong contender, standing her ground among the big names in 12 Years a Slave, and making for one of the most distressing roles of the year. Late-surger Jennifer Lawrence, however, is likely to make it two in a row (both in David O.Russell films) with her stand-out spoilt wife in American Hustle, more than holding her own against the ‘big boys’, and at her best when singing her heart out to ‘Live and Let Die’, a scene of pure enjoyment and belly laughing.

Should Win: June Squibb (Nebraska)

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Best of the Rest (Should Win/Will Win)

Original Screenplay: Blue Jasmine/American Hustle

Adapted Screenplay: Before Midnight/Philomena

Cinematography: Inside Llewyn Davis/ Gravity

Animated Feature: Frozen/ Frozen

Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing/ The Act of Killing

Quick Top 5: Most Shocking Snubs of 2014

5. Before Midnight – Best Picture

The previous two ignored all together, perhaps expecting a ‘Lord of the Rings’ style acknowledgement for this beautifully touching trilogy.

4. Robert Redford (All is Lost) – Best Actor

Not many actors could hold together a survival film on their own, let alone a 77 year old: Redford’s face says it all in this near dialogue-less film.

3. Daniel Bruhl (Rush) – Best Actor/Supporting Actor

Disappeared after Inglorious Basterds, Bruhl has come back on full form in this racing epic, as lovable baddie Niki Lauda opposite Chris Hemsworth.

2. Inside Llewyn Davis/The Coen Brothers – Best Picture/Director/Screenplay

The Coens’ 16^th film is top form as always, and has been shunned altogether, save for a lousy cinematography nomination.

1. Joaquin Phoenix (Her) – Best Actor

One of our generation’s finest actors, Phoenix is at the top of his game in Her: nominated for Best Picture, despite barely being able to exist without the central performance of J.P.